Book Description
Which individuals are apt to commit a single violent act? Who among them will commit more such acts? What degree of certainty can judges, parole boards, mental health institutions, and the general public hold in terms of violence predictions by psychologists and psychiatrists? What level of confidence, beyond the level of pure chance, can evaluators have in their own predictions of dangerousness? Harold V. Hall and Ronald S. Ebert explore the historical foundations of these inquiries and discuss multiple generations of forensic-decision analysis, adding more than a decade of contemporary research to the first edition of this book. They present the most common deliberate and nondeliberate distortions that can influence violence prediction analysis, and they discuss both literature and demonstration studies that are the foundation of prediction accuracy. Additionally, they explore extant systems, the dangerousness prediction decision tree and major pitfalls of its! use, as well as ethical considerations in forensics and the assessments of dangerousness. Throughout this volume, the authors include a wide range of pertinent figures, tables, appendix materials, and references for thoughtful analysts to use as they seek to understand the complex issues of predicting dangerousness and potential levels of human predatory violence.