From Publishers Weekly
Stephen Leeb, editor of the "Complete Investor" newsletter, believes the U.S. economy is headed for a significant fall because of a severe shortage of oil, which has been inextricably tied to the economy for the past 30 years. Leeb, author of several books including Getting In on the Ground Floor (also co-written with wife Donna), believes the country must become less dependent on oil imports over the long term. Meanwhile, though, Leeb advises individuals to choose investments based on the longstanding relationship between oil prices and the stock market. He has a number of solid observations based on an examination of the past 30 years of stock performance and oil prices: "Since 1973, the economy and stock market have danced to oil's tune. Sharp rises in oil prices have led to recession/stagflation and plummeting stocks, while declining prices or prices that are just mildly uptrended have led to good times." Leeb provides a great deal of historic context and analyzes industries, selected companies, and other investment choices such as bonds and Treasury notes. Leeb's thesis is well researched, and the book offers a solid, concise overview of the economy and stock trends. Still, given the uncertainty of the stock market-and the lack of job security-readers should consider Leeb's strategies carefully before overhauling their portfolios. Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


From Booklist
Stephen Leeb is president of Leeb Capital Management and editor of The Complete Investor, a monthly financial newsletter. An independent thinker, he has collaborated with his wife, Donna Leeb, on four previous books that often defied the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. Here they forecast an energy crisis caused by U.S. dependence on foreign oil and discuss possible effects of such a crisis on the economy and the stock market. When the world's demand for oil overtakes its supply, oil prices will inevitably soar, and this, say the authors, does not bode well for typical indexed stock funds. Watching the "Oil Index," however, offers help in deciding whether to stay in the market, and natural gas stocks can provide balance to every investor's core holdings. Research on alternatives to fossil fuels shows some promise, the Leebs say, but has lagged behind the demand for new technology. They also discuss straight energy plays, gold, alternative energy stocks, and deflation hedges, all part of a diverse strategy to stay ahead of the game during the volatile years ahead. David Siegfried
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved


Myron Kandel,CNN Financial editor
"A blockbuster. This is a powerful warning about oil's impact on the economy and the stock market."


Vahan Janjigian,Director Forbes Investors Advisory Institute
"If you are not yet worried about oil as a source of energy,you will be after reading this book."


Gene G Marcial, Senior writer and
"A truly impressive acount of how much the oil supply problem has been underestimated - and misunderstood.."


Book Description
A storm is coming - an inflationary "perfect storm" whipped up by skyrocketing oil prices that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare. Renowned financial analyst Stephen Leeb asserts that in this perilous period, oil prices will drive all other economic indicators.This book will show you how to diversify yourself away from potential disaster!


Download Description
Financial guru Stephen Leeb sees a storm coming—an inflationary "perfect storm" that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare ahead of time. In this perilous period, it will be essential to pay attention to the price of oil, because as prices fluctuate, so, too, will the economy. As Foreign Affairs recently pointed out, to support the world's population, oil production must rise in the next 20 years from 75 million barrels a day to 125 million—a 66% increase! And yet all over the world—from the North Sea to Mexico to Venezuela—come reports of production capacity maxing out.
Even an American victory in Iraq could only mean a 1% rise in capacity in the short term. Result: pressure to raise output will mean higher production costs, which will mean vastly more expensive oil. Higher energy costs mean depressed growth for most companies (the exception being energy producers) and rising prices undermine the value of bonds. But there is a way to diversify away from disaster: by dedicating a significant part of one's portfolio to real assets that keep their value relative to inflation.
Here, Stephen Leeb will help readers pick the "energy-producer star performers," reveal the "double payoff" to investing in metals like platinum and silver, explain why the stocks of "mega-insurers" are a safe bet, and show how investing in real estate does not have to mean actually owning it.


About the Author
Stephen and Donna Leeb live in New York City.

FROM THE PUBLISHER

Financial guru Stephen Leeb shows how following oil prices can lead investors to real financial security. A storm is coming—an inflationary "perfect storm" whipped up by skyrocketing oil prices that will lay waste to millions of portfolios if investors don't prepare. Renowned financial advisor Stephen Leeb asserts that in this perilous period, oil prices will drive all other economic indicators. But there is a way to diversify away from disaster, by dedicating a significant part of one's portfolio to real assets that keep their value relative to inflation. Here, Leeb helps readers pick the "energy-producer star performers," and reveals the "double payoff" to investing in metals like platinum and silver. He also explains why the stocks of "mega-insurers" are a safe bet, and shows how investing in real estate does not have to mean actually owning it. Filled with sound advice for an unstable marketplace, this is the book no one with a 401K can afford to miss.

Author Biography: Stephen and Donna Leeb live in New York City.

SYNOPSIS

Capital adviser Stephen and business writer Donna explain how investors can continue to make a bundle as they ride the petroleum economy into oblivion. They suggest oil and natural gas, gold, defense companies, and alternative energy. They also tell how to profit from real estate without owning any. Annotation ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

FROM THE CRITICS

Vahan Janjigian - Director Forbes Investors Advisory Institute and Editor, Forbes Growth Investor

If you're not yet worried about oil as a source of energy, you will be after reading this book. The Leebs will convince you that our excessive dependence on black gold will inevitably result in shortages, inflation and a shaken economy. But all is not lost. Read this book and find out why, as Bob Dylan once said, "The answer is blowing in the wind.

Howard M Crosby - President, Cadence Resources Corporation

THE OIL FACTOR paints a bulls-eye squarely on the biggest problem facing the American economy in the early 21st century....that is, how are we to cope with the end of cheap, readily available conventional oil and natural gas? How we answer this question will surely dictate the future for our children and grandchildren.

Thomas Kaplan - Chairman, Apex Silver, and Oxford Ph.D. in history

THE OIL FACTOR is destined to be viewed as a classic text when the financial history of our era is written. By synthesizing the key insights that have led them to forecast with uncanny accuracy today's crisis in energy supply and transmission, Donna and Stephen Leeb have provided an unsettling prognosis for America's future. Never let it be said that we weren't warned; the Leebs don't mince words. With its concrete prescriptions, and specific investment scenarios, THE OIL FACTOR is an absolutely indispensable tool in every investor's arsenal.

Jonathan Hoenig - Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC; author of Greed is Good; and frequent commentator on Fox TV

The Oil Factor is brazen, brilliant...and a little bit frightening. Because while investors weaned on "buy and hold" might not like to admit it, the investment landscape is changing. Thankfully, the Leebs are one step ahead of the game. Their fearless forecast of $100/barrel oil and $1000/ounce gold are important reminders that inflation isn't dead, just patiently hiding from those without the foresight to see it. Provocative and prophetic, this is one of the most important books I've read in years. Those who heed its strategies will be richly rewarded.

Gene G. Marcial - Senior Writer and "Inside Wall Street" columnist, Business Week