When it comes to thinking about statistics, there are four kinds of people: awestruck, naive, cynical, and critical. According to sociologist Joel Best, the vast majority of people are naive (yes, you too probably suffer from a mild case of innumeracy), and the result is mutant statistics, guesswork, and poor policy decisions. "Bad statistics live on," writes Best in this highly accessible book, "they take on lives of their own." Take this one: a psychologist's estimate that perhaps 6 percent of priests were at some point sexually attracted to young people was transformed through a chain of errors into the "fact" that 6 percent of priests were pedophiles. Then there was the one about eating disorders. An original estimate that 150,000 women were anorexic, made by concerned activists, mutated into 150,000 women dying from the disorder annually (the truth: about 70 women a year). But these two mutant statistics have been published and passed along as facts for years, enduring long after the truth has been pointed out.

In an effort to turn people into critical thinkers, Best presents three questions to ask about all statistics and the four basic sources of bad ones. He shows how good statistics go bad; why comparing statistics from different time periods, groups, etc. is akin to mixing apples and oranges; and why surveys do little to clarify people's feelings about complex social issues. Random samples, it turns out, are rarely random enough. He also explains what all the hoopla is over how the poverty line is measured and the census is counted. What is the "dark figure"? How many men were really at the Million Man March? How is it possible for the average income per person to rise at the same time the average hourly wage is falling? And how do you discern the truth behind stat wars? Learn it all here before you rush to judgment over the next little nugget of statistics-based truth you read. --Lesley Reed


From Publishers Weekly
Who really said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics" Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli? Best, professor of sociology at the University of Delaware and author of several books, including Random Violence, settles the question once and for all: Disraeli (whom Twain credits for his use of the remark in his autobiography). The quote's misattribution is similar to the twisted course statistics often take as they "mutate" into bar-chart monsters with slim if any relation to the original numbers or reality. For instance, a few years ago it was estimated that 150,000 American women are anorexic. Somehow, this mutated into an erroneous if not dangerous statistic: 150,000 women die annually from anorexia. Since only about 55,500 American women between 15 and 44 (the age range for most cases of anorexia) die from all causes each year, this number challenges common sense and the ability of reporters to question what they write about. But it has become a frequently cited, "authoritative" figure that's hard to dispute. Best explains in untechnical language important statistical concepts like "dark figures," "false positives" and "false negatives," and how statisticians often err in comparing dissimilar groups (e.g., test scores of American high school students to those of Europeans, with their multitrack systems of secondary education). He has an annoying habit of italicizing words and phrases to emphasize a point, and he conflates "activists" and "advocates" (academic writers' favorite bogeymen as purveyors of suspect statistics), but these are minor issues. This informative and well-written little book will be a particularly worthwhile addition to libraries' collections and will help all readers become savvier and more critical news consumers. Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.


From Booklist
One intriguing contention in Best's counsel on how not to be snowed by statistics is that statistics actually create social problems. Only after someone measures the extent of a predicament and trumpets the findings does society decide it has a problem. Take anorexia, of which 150,000 young women were said to die each year. Unfortunately, the statistic involved in that case was bad, a misrepresentation of an estimate that 150,000 may suffer from anorexia. Such mangling is just one, if often the most dramatic, way of making statistics bad that Best wants readers to watch out for. Others are poor definition of what is to be measured, sampling that inaccurately reflects the constituents of what is measured, and guessing instead of measuring. Using numbers tossed about in major controversies, such as Kinsey's 10 percent figure for the proportion of Americans who are homosexuals, Best shows how to spot all those ways of producing bad statistics. And before you critique the numbers, he says, assess their sources for trustworthiness. Invaluable counsel for good citizenship. Ray Olson
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved


Booklist
"Invaluable counsel for good citizenship."


San Diego Union-Tribune
"There's a 73 percent chance that the University of Delaware prof has got our number."


Publishers Weekly
"This informative and well-written little book . . . will help all readers become savvier and more critical news consumers."


the Independent
"What we are offered is an approach that helps us to work out the real story behind those numbers."


Boston Globe editorial
"Deserves a place next to the dictionary on every school, media, and home-office desk."


Christian Science Monitor
"It is as important to discussions of public policy as any book circulating today."


New Scientist
"Definitely a must for politicians, activists and others who generate or use statistics . . . "


the Washington Times
"[It] ought to be required reading in every newsroom in the country."


Nature
"Always engaging, it is accessible to a lay reader, yet will reward the expert."


Book Description
Does the number of children gunned down double each year? Does anorexia kill 150,000 young women annually? Do white males account for only a sixth of new workers? Startling statistics shape our thinking about social issues. But all too often, these numbers are wrong. This book is a lively guide to spotting bad statistics and learning to think critically about these influential numbers. Damned Lies and Statistics is essential reading for everyone who reads or listens to the news, for students, and for anyone who relies on statistical information to understand social problems. Joel Best bases his discussion on a wide assortment of intriguing contemporary issues that have garnered much recent media attention, including abortion, cyberporn, homelessness, the Million Man March, teen suicide, the U.S. census, and much more. Using examples from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other major newspapers and television programs, he unravels many fascinating examples of the use, misuse, and abuse of statistical information. In this book Best shows us exactly how and why bad statistics emerge, spread, and come to shape policy debates. He recommends specific ways to detect bad statistics, and shows how to think more critically about "stat wars," or disputes over social statistics among various experts. Understanding this book does not require sophisticated mathematical knowledge; Best discusses the most basic and most easily understood forms of statistics, such as percentages, averages, and rates. This accessible book provides an alternative to either naively accepting the statistics we hear or cynically assuming that all numbers are meaningless. It shows how anyone can become a more intelligent, critical, and empowered consumer of the statistics that inundate both the social sciences and our media-saturated lives.


Download Description
Does the number of children gunned down double each year? Does anorexia kill 150,000 young women annually? Do white males account for only a sixth of new workers? Startling statistics shape our thinking about social issues. But all too often, these numbers are wrong. This book is a lively guide to spotting bad statistics and learning to think critically about these influential numbers. Damned Lies and Statistics is essential reading for everyone who reads or listens to the news, for students, and for anyone who relies on statistical information to understand social problems. Joel Best bases his discussion on a wide assortment of intriguing contemporary issues that have garnered much recent media attention, including abortion, cyberporn, homelessness, the Million Man March, teen suicide, the U.S. census, and much more. Using examples from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other major newspapers and television programs, he unravels many fascinating examples of the use, misuse, and abuse of statistical information. In this book Best shows us exactly how and why bad statistics emerge, spread, and come to shape policy debates. He recommends specific ways to detect bad statistics, and shows how to think more critically about "stat wars," or disputes over social statistics among various experts. Understanding this book does not require sophisticated mathematical knowledge; Best discusses the most basic and most easily understood forms of statistics, such as percentages, averages, and rates. This accessible book provides an alternative to either naively accepting the statistics we hear or cynically assuming that all numbers are meaningless. It shows how anyone can become a more intelligent, critical, and empowered consumer of the statistics that inundate both the social sciences and our media-saturated lives.


From the Back Cover
"[An] absolutely fascinating and sobering quest into the fantastic differences between the world as it is and the world as it is portrayed in the statistics the media use. . . .This book is simply a must."-Nachman Ben-Yehuda, author of The Masada Myth "Best is our leading authority on social problems today. His detective work in exposing the spurious use of statistics is essential to constructive social science. No one who speaks for the public welfare can ignore his powerful work."-Jonathan B. Imber, Editor-in-Chief, Society "Joel Best is at it again. In Damned Lies and Statistics, he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted "facts" and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny."-Patricia Adler, author of Peer Power "A real page turner. Best is the John Grisham of sociology!"-James Holstein, author of The New Language of Qualitative Method


About the Author
Joel Best is Professor and Chair of Sociology and Criminal Justice at the University of Delaware and author of Random Violence (California, 1999), among other books.

FROM THE PUBLISHER

"[An] absolutely fascinating and sobering quest into the fantastic differences between the world as it is and the world as it is portrayed in the statistics the media use. . . .This book is simply a must."-Nachman Ben-Yehuda, author of The Masada Myth

"Best is our leading authority on social problems today. His detective work in exposing the spurious use of statistics is essential to constructive social science. No one who speaks for the public welfare can ignore his powerful work."-Jonathan B. Imber, Editor-in-Chief, Society

"Joel Best is at it again. In Damned Lies and Statistics, he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted "facts" and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny."-Patricia Adler, author of Peer Power

"A real page turner. Best is the John Grisham of sociology!"-James Holstein, author of The New Language of Qualitative Method

Author Biography: Joel Best is Professor and Chair of Sociology and Criminal Justice at the University of Delaware and author of Random Violence (California, 1999), among other books.

SYNOPSIS

Does the number of children gunned down double each year? Does anorexia kill 150,000 young women annually? Do white males account for only a sixth of new workers? Startling statistics shape our thinking about social issues. But all too often, these numbers are wrong. This book is a lively guide to spotting bad statistics and learning to think critically about these influential numbers. Damned Lies and Statistics is essential reading for everyone who reads or listens to the news, for students, and for anyone who relies on statistical information to understand social problems.

Joel Best bases his discussion on a wide assortment of intriguing contemporary issues that have garnered much recent media attention, including abortion, cyberporn, homelessness, the Million Man March, teen suicide, the U.S. census, and much more. Using examples from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other major newspapers and television programs, he unravels many fascinating examples of the use, misuse, and abuse of statistical information.

In this book Best shows us exactly how and why bad statistics emerge, spread, and come to shape policy debates. He recommends specific ways to detect bad statistics, and shows how to think more critically about "stat wars," or disputes over social statistics among various experts. Understanding this book does not require sophisticated mathematical knowledge; Best discusses the most basic and most easily understood forms of statistics, such as percentages, averages, and rates.

This accessible book provides an alternative to either naively accepting the statistics we hear or cynically assuming that all numbers are meaningless. It shows how anyone can becomea more intelligent, critical, and empowered consumer of the statistics that inundate both the social sciences and our media-saturated lives.

FROM THE CRITICS

Patricia Adler - author of Peer Power

Best is at it again! In Damned Lies and Statistics he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted facts and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny.

Nature

The narrative flows easily, and all the points are driven home with engaging examples from real life. I found Best's book a delight. Always engaging, it is accessible to a lay reader, yet will reward the expert; the examples it gives could enrich both a primary schoolroom and a university lecture hall.

Boston Globe

Deserves a place next to the dictionary on every school, media, and home-office desk.

New Scientist

Definitely a must for politicians, activists and others who generate or use statistics, but especially for those who want to think for themselves rather than take as gospel every statistic presented to them.

Washington Times