Robert B. Zoellick, Former U.S. Undersecretary of State, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff
"Noland's account offers especially timely insights and guidance."


Joe Stiglitz, Former Senior Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank
"Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor...essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea."


Journal of Asian Studies; Lawrence B. Krause, UC San Diego
"Noland has digested everything that can be relied upon to understand North Korea and made it widely accessible."


Il SaKong, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Economics and former Minister of Finance of the Republic of South Korea
" . . . (This) encyclopedic coverage of the two Korean economies . . . will be widely read and cited."


The Japan Times
"Noland's exhaustive study. . . offers a 'tour d'horizon,'. . . as well as extensive analysis of unification's likely effects."


The Japan Times
“The best way to [be prepared for the worst]is to read “Avoiding the Apocalypse.”


Book Description
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post- war era confronts a famine-ridden and possibly nuclear- armed totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study (*), the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and muddling through in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. June 2000. 300 pages (approx.). ISBN: paper 0-88132-278-4. $22.00.


Download Description
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post-war era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study (*), the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.


From the Publisher
Winner of the prestigious Ohira Masayoshi Award for 2000-2001.


About the Author
Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow, has been the Senior Economist for International Economics at the Council of Economic Advisers, as well as a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University, the University of Southern California, Tokyo University, Saitama University, the University of Ghana, and a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. He has written many articles on international economics and is the author of Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (2000) and Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future (1990). He is coauthor of Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (1998), Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict with C. Fred Bergsten (1993), Japan in the World Economy with Bela Balassa (1988), the editor of Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula (1998), and coeditor of Pacific Dynamism and the International Economic System (1993).

FROM THE PUBLISHER

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden--and possibly nucleararmed--totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.

SYNOPSIS

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post-war era confronts a famine-ridden -- and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.

FROM THE CRITICS

Booknews

Examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the US and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the Korean peninsula is explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption, and "muddling through," in which North Korea makes regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. Noland has been a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING

Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor, and essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea. — Joe Stiglitz, Former Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank.

Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute:

Avoiding the Apocalypse . . . establishes Noland as one of the most important contemporary authorities on the Korean conundrum. It is original, powerful, and persuasive . . . — Nicholas Eberstadt

Don Gregg, The Korea Society, and former U.S. Ambassador to Republic of South Korea:

(The paper is) the best I've seen on the subject. — Don Gregg

Il SaKong, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Economics and former Minister of Finance of the Republic of South Korea

. . . (This) encyclopedic coverage of the two Korean economies . . . will be widely read and cited. — Il SaKong

Robert B. Zoellick, Former U.S. Undersecretary of State, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff:

Marcus Noland has managed to integrate the political and economic stories of both North and South Korea in one most useful volume. Given the Summit plans, which will be part of an ongoing and complex process, Noland's account offers especially timely insights and guidance.  — Robert B. Zoellick

Scott Snyder, Asia Foundation, (Seoul, Korea):

. . . Noland (provides us) with an eminently sensible and comprehensive guidebook in anticipation of Korean peninsula scenarios that are by definition extraordinarily uncertain. — Scott Snyder

Joe Stiglitz, Former Senior Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank: